AI Search Visibility: Why 85% of Topics Are Still Up for Grabs

Introduction: The Core Shift

Brand visibility in ChatGPT is no longer about ranking for a single prompt. A new study from Semrush and Kevin Indig analyzed 1,094 subject areas across 50,000 brands and found that winning one question doesn't mean you own the topic. The real prize is consistent appearance across the cluster of questions buyers ask. And right now, 85% of topics have no clear owner.

Why Most Topics Are Still Contestable

The data reveals that only 15.2% of categories have a clear owner—a brand mentioned in at least four of five related prompts with a five-percentage-point lead. Another 31.2% have an emerging leader, but 53.7% are completely unsettled. Counterintuitively, high-volume topics (the top half by AI search demand) are even less likely to have a clear owner: just 11.3% vs. 19% for lower-volume topics. Since the top half accounts for 98% of AI search volume, the most valuable real estate is wide open.

Traditional SEO Metrics Don't Tell the Whole Story

You might expect strong SEO fundamentals to predict topic ownership. But the study found that branded search volume, organic traffic, and Authority Score only correlate with ownership about half the time. Owners had higher branded search volume in 55.7% of pairs, higher organic traffic in 48.4%, and higher Authority Score in 52.5%. In nearly half the cases, the runner-up had better metrics but still lost. The deciding factor appears to be deep, topic-specific coverage rather than broad domain strength.

Leadership Is Sticky—But Only With a Wide Margin

Once a brand achieves clear topic ownership, it tends to hold on: clear owners retained first place in 90.4% of month-over-month comparisons. However, narrow leads are fragile. Topics where the leader flipped had a median lead of just 1.3 percentage points, while those that held had a median lead of 2.9 points. This means challengers can still overtake incumbents if they act before the leader consolidates a wider margin.

Strategic Implications for Your Business

For most businesses, the opportunity is clear: pick two or three relevant topics where you already have some signal, and build deep content coverage, third-party mentions, and entity signals. The 53.7% of unsettled categories are first-mover opportunities. If you're an emerging leader in a category, focus on widening your lead to at least 3 percentage points to lock in stability. If you're a challenger, target categories where the leader's margin is thin—those are winnable now.

Bottom Line: Impact for Executives

AI search is fragmenting brand visibility. High-volume categories are less owned, and leadership is fleeting. This shifts power from established brands to those agile enough to build topical authority. The brands that will win are those that treat AI visibility as a topic-level game, not a keyword game. Start by auditing your current topical presence, then invest in the specific content and citations that signal deep expertise.

Source: Semrush Blog